The unstoppable rise of batteries is leading to a domino effect that puts half of global fossil fuel demand at risk.
Battery sales are growing exponentially up S-curves
Source: Ziegler and Trancik (2021), Placke et al. (2017) for 1991-2014; BNEF Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook (2023) for 2015-2022 and the latest outlook for 2023 (*) from the BNEF Lithium-Ion Battery Price Survey (2023).
Battery costs keep falling while quality rises
Source: Ziegler and Trancik (2021) before 2018 (end of data), BNEF Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook (2023) since 2018, BNEF Lithium-Ion Battery Price Survey (2023) for 2015-2023, RMI analysis.
Creating a battery domino effect
Source: BNEF, RMI analysis; Electronics share of addressable market percentage indicative, transport percentage based on 2022 EV sales share, stationary storage defined as sales volume today divided by peak sales in long term (2050). Trains, ships, and airplane total addressable market sizes illustrative.
Source: Ziegler and Trancik (2021), Placke et al. (2017) for 1991-2014; BNEF Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook (2023) for 2015-2022 and the latest outlook for 2023 (*) from the BNEF Lithium-Ion Battery Price Survey (2023).
Source: Ziegler and Trancik (2021) before 2018 (end of data), BNEF Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook (2023) since 2018, BNEF Lithium-Ion Battery Price Survey (2023) for 2015-2023, RMI analysis.
Source: BNEF, RMI analysis; Electronics share of addressable market percentage indicative, transport percentage based on 2022 EV sales share, stationary storage defined as sales volume today divided by peak sales in long term (2050). Trains, ships, and airplane total addressable market sizes illustrative.
